Pear Growers brace for breakeven year amid mixed quality and market fluctuations

In a recent industry analysis, AgWest Farm Credit has projected a challenging year ahead for pear growers, anticipating a breakeven scenario over the next 12 months. Key factors influencing this outlook include mixed fruit quality, fluctuating prices, and a rise in export activities.

Mixed fruit quality and regional variations

The quality of pears, particularly Bartlett and Anjou varieties, has been favorable in certain regions, whereas Bosc pears have not met expected standards, lacking sufficient russeting – the rough reddish-brown skin typically desired. Boscs account for 17% to 20% of total pear production. The disparity in fruit quality and crop sizes is causing significant regional variations in pack-outs – the quantity of fruit reaching fresh markets. The Wenatchee district experienced lower harvest volumes but higher pack-out rates, contrary to the Mid-Columbia district. Reports from Hood River indicate an excess of small-sized fruit, potentially unsuitable for retail shipping. In contrast, the Yakima district saw gains in harvest volumes, compensating for lower pack-out rates.

Pear crop shipments

Data from Pear Bureau Northwest's Pear Crop Report 18 indicates that season-to-date shipments to retailers are marginally below average, aligning closely with the previous season's trends.

Softening prices

The fourth quarter witnessed a decline in average pear prices, primarily attributed to an oversupplied apple market, which often influences pear pricing, and partly due to the mixed fruit quality. Although there's potential for price recovery later in the marketing season, the current levels pose a challenge to producer profitability.

Export trends

Export activities, especially for Anjou and Bosc varieties, have shown an uptick over 2022, with significant increases in markets like Mexico, Canada, and Latin America. This robust export demand is expected to lend some support to pear prices.

Overall profitability outlook

Given the current market conditions, pear producers are likely to face break-even situations in the coming 12 months. The varied impact of fruit quality on pack-outs across different regions and the downward pressure on prices due to a large apple crop are primary contributors to this outlook. Nonetheless, the strength in export markets may offer some respite in terms of price support.